Strongest storm of week to hit Los Angeles on Wednesday. Here’s what to expect
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The first of two storms soaking Southern California this week is gone, but the second, more powerful storm, with winds and rain that could trigger flooding and debris flows, is set to arrive Wednesday afternoon, the National Weather Service warned.
The storm is moving faster than originally anticipated but is still bloated with moisture and is expected to dump 1 to 2 inches of rain along the coast and up to 4 inches in the valleys at rates that could cause problems.
“Fire-impacted communities need to be on alert,” Los Angeles County Supervisor Kathryn Barger said during a news conference Wednesday morning. “The risk of mudflow and landslides is real. Play it safe and be prepared.”
Officials plan to issue a flood watch beginning at 6 p.m. Wednesday and lasting through Thursday afternoon warning of the possibility of flash flooding and debris flows caused by excessive rainfall. The alert will include much of Los Angeles and Ventura counties, and the south coast of Santa Barbara County.
The heaviest rain is expected to fall between Wednesday night and early Thursday, according to the weather service. There is a possibility of heavier showers and thunderstorms hitting the southwest-facing mountains and foothills, areas that are prone to such storm patterns.
“There is a high chance of rainfall rates exceeding 0.75 [of an] inch which is favorable to create flooding in urban areas and cause significant debris flow on recent burn scars,” the weather service’s Oxnard office posted in a Wednesday morning forecast.
Ahead of the second storm, evacuation warnings have been issued for Los Angeles communities near burn scars.
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In the Palisades burn scar, the Getty Villa area, the Highlands, the Bienveneda area near Temescal Canyon Park, Rivas Canyon/Will Rogers State Park, Mandeville Canyon above Tanners Road, Old Ranch Road and Rustic Creek are under evacuation warnings starting Wednesday morning.
East and south of Runyon Canyon in the Sunset fire zone are also under an evacuation warning. In the Hurst fire area, an evacuation warning has been issued for Olive Lane in the Oakridge Mobile Home Park, according to the Los Angeles Fire Department.
Several neighborhoods in Malibu are also under evacuation warnings, according to the city.
The areas include Carbon Canyon, Carbon Beach East, La Costa Beach/La Costa (hillside), Las Flores Creek, Las Flores Mesa, eastern Malibu, Big Rock, Las Tunas Beach, Topanga Beach Road, Carbon Beach Terrace, Carbon Beach, Rambla Pacifico, Carbon Beach West/Malibu Beach, Sweetwater Canyon, Sweetwater Mesa, Serra Retreat, Malibu Creek, Cross Creek, Malibu Colony, Civic Center, Malibu Knolls, Malibu Road, Malibu Country Estates, Puerco Canyon and Piuma Road.
“Residents should prepare to evacuate now due to the significant risk of flash flooding, debris flows and mudslides. These hazards pose a serious threat to life and property,” the city wrote in a post on X.
In the Eaton fire burn scar, officials have warned residents to prepare to leave their homes ahead of the storm.
The city of Sierra Madre issued mandatory evacuation orders for homes directly below the Sierra Madre and Lannan debris basins. Evacuation warnings have been issued for other hillside-adjacent neighborhoods in the community. Those evacuations will remain in effect through 6 p.m. Thursday, according to the city.
Evacuation warnings have also been issued for homes near the San Gabriel foothills in Altadena.
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Officials say the evacuation warnings and orders will last until at least Thursday evening.
Heavy rain rates overnight could trigger significant debris flows in the burn areas, forecasters say. Experts say the risk of mud and debris sliding off burned hillsides rises once rain starts falling at a rate of half an inch per hour.
Peak rain rates of half an inch to three-quarters of an inch per hour are possible with this event, and there’s a 10% to 20% chance of rain rates that reach an inch per hour if a thunderstorm materializes, according to the weather service.
Los Angeles County officials say they are prepared for the incoming deluge. Crews have reduced the amount of debris in basins so they have capacity to catch mud and other materials that flow off the hillsides during the storm, said Los Angeles County Public Works Director Mark Pestrella.
“All of our debris basins have capacity for this upcoming storm,” he said. “We expect debris and mud to come from slopes without a debris basin below it or from street systems where debris comes onto the street off of the adjacent properties.”
Crews have been hauling debris from a smaller basin — the Sierra Madre dam — every day for the last several weeks. That basin will likely overtop during the storm, as it did during the last major wet weather that hit Los Angeles, Pestrella said.
“In the last event, the flows went over the spillway, ended up in the channel system and flowed safely past homes,” he said. “We expect the same in our model of this event.”
Across Los Angeles County, officials are already preparing to close roads because of the risk of mudslides and debris flows.
Pacific Coast Highway between Chautauqua Boulevard in Pacific Palisades and Carbon Beach Terrace in Malibu will close beginning at noon Wednesday ahead of the brunt of the storm, according to the California Department of Transportation.
Local mountain roads will also be closed beginning at 6 p.m., Pestrella said.
In Orange County, officials issued a voluntary evacuation warning on Wednesday for Trabuco Canyon, Hot Springs Canyon, Bell Canyon, Long Canyon and Modjeska Canyon because of possible debris flows along the Airport fire burn scar.
In San Bernardino, officials issued evacuation warnings for the area of Wrightwood from the county line east to Pine Street, Rivera Drive south to Acorn Trail and the entire community of Mt. Baldy Village. Residents in the area of Highland adjacent to the Line fire burn zone have also been warned about the risk of debris flows and should be prepared to evacuate, according to the San Bernardino County Sheriff.
The storm is also expected to drop a fresh dusting of powder across California’s mountain ranges, a welcome boost to the state’s snowpack after a warm, dry start to winter.
As of Wednesday, the statewide snowpack — which provides roughly a third of the state’s water supply — is 81% of average, with more snow in the northern Sierra and less in the south.
In Los Angeles, Ventura and Santa Barbara counties, snow levels will fall to 3,000 feet by Wednesday night, bringing at least light snow to those areas.
One to 2 feet of snow is expected at elevations above 6,500 feet, while 6 to 12 inches could fall at lower elevations. Between an inch and 5 inches is forecast for elevations between 4,000 and 5,500 feet. Winds could gust as high as 50 mph. Officials plan to issue a winter storm warning between 4 p.m. Wednesday and 5 a.m. Saturday.
There’s a risk of blowing snow and ice on Interstate 5 in the Tejon Pass that could cause travel delays. Highway 14 in the Antelope Valley and Highways 33 and 154 could also see issues.
Mountains in San Bernardino and Riverside counties could see accumulations of 4 to 8 inches at elevations between 5,000 and 6,000 feet and 8 to 14 inches at 6,000 to 7,000 feet. Higher peaks, above 8,000 feet, could get 24 inches or more.
In the San Diego County mountains, total accumulations of 4 to 8 inches are expected at elevations above 5,000 feet.
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Another storm system, though much weaker, is expected to move over the region Friday, bringing another chance of drizzly weather to Los Angeles before sunshine returns over the weekend.
But don’t stash those umbrellas away for long. More rain could be on the horizon next week as another storm system moves into Southern California.
Times staff writer Karen Garcia contributed to this report.
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