If Trump cuts Medicaid, this California Republican’s House seat would be imperiled
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Rep. David Valadao faced a no-win decision last month: Fall into line behind President Trump and vote for a budget resolution that would almost certainly cut into Medicaid funding, risking his constituents’ wrath; or vote against it, catapulting his party into chaos and setting himself up for a primary opponent possibly backed by Trump.
Valadao, a Republican dairy farmer from Hanford, chose his party.
In his speech on the House floor ahead of the vote, Valadao acknowledged that he’d “heard from countless constituents” advocating for continued support of the program.
“I will not support a final reconciliation bill that risks leaving them behind,” he said, adding, “I ask that leadership remains committed to working with my colleagues and I to produce a final product that strengthens critical programs like Medicaid and SNAP and ensures that our constituents are not left behind.”
Valadao’s vote came early in a budget process that Republicans say will eventually provide $2 trillion in savings. Assuming all Democrats vote against a final spending plan — as they did with the budget resolution — House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) can afford to lose only one Republican vote.
Back home, Valadao faces the difficult task of reassuring his constituents in the 22nd Congressional District that he will stave off cuts to Medi-Cal, as Medicaid is known in California. Republican Reps. Young Kim and Ken Calvert, who represent other swing districts in California, also voted for the budget resolution. But Valadao faces a steeper battle: More than half a million residents in his Central Valley district, or roughly two-thirds of the population, are covered by the program — the most of any district in California, according to the UC Berkeley Labor Center.
Already, Democrats are preparing to use his vote in an effort to unseat the longtime congressman.
As the minority party in both the House and Senate, Democrats have struggled to decide how to resist Trump and the Republicans in Congress. The budget resolution vote, which is almost certain to cut into Medicaid, gave them something to work with: House Majority Forward, a progressive political action committee, started running attack ads in 23 potential swing districts held by Republicans, including Valadao’s.
“David Valadao will regret betraying Central Valley families by voting to gut Medicaid in order to fund massive tax cuts for billionaires and big corporations,” Justin Chermol, a spokesperson for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, said in a statement.
Many Central Valley residents are in poor health. Kern County, one of the three counties that make up the district, had the highest mortality rate for diabetes in the state, with 1,241 deaths between 2020 and 2022.
In neighboring Kings County, heart disease and cancer are the leading cause of death, and more than a quarter of residents rated their health as “fair” or “poor,” according to the county public health department. And in Tulare County, health officials are warning that budget cuts could force the closure of rural hospitals, which already operate on tight margins due to a high number of Medi-Cal patients.
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Kelly Kulzer-Reyes, a Bakersfield resident and co-founder of the Kern Down Syndrome Network, has a working relationship with Valadao, who has supported their advocacy in the past, she said. In the district, more than 8,500 people rely on the Regional Center, which offers services to individuals with developmental disabilities.
“I know he wants to support us, I know he is a good person,” she said. “But the vote to move forward with the budget resolution was devastating to me. I’ve never been as scared as I am right now.”
Recipients such as her 12-year-old daughter, Amelia, depend on the state and federal healthcare program to fund services that allow them to learn skills and navigate the world, Kulzer-Reyes said. Amelia, who has Down syndrome, receives access to a program that helps participants learn how to socialize with others. Other families get healthcare — such as annual doctor’s appointments and dental checkups — they otherwise wouldn’t have.
“Those kinds of services can make or break a family,” Kulzer-Reyes said. “They’re life-changing and life-destroying if you don’t have access.”
She believes Valadao when he says he does not support cuts to the program. But she wishes he did more to stand up to his party.
“I just wish he would speak up. It must be exhausting, but it’s the job he ran for,” she said. “This is a career-breaking or making situation for him right now.”
Republican leaders advocating for the budget resolution emphasized that it didn’t explicitly mention Medicaid. Trump, who lobbied certain congressional Republicans to support the budget resolution, has also said that he wouldn’t support cutting Medicaid.
But the Congressional Budget Office, which provides nonpartisan budget analysis, reported that it would be impossible for the Energy and Commerce Committee — which is tasked with cutting $880 billion — to find enough savings without touching Medicaid, Medicare or the Children’s Health Insurance Program.
“Medicaid is the only place — it’s like the bank, it’s where the money is,” said Mark Peterson, professor of public policy, political science, health policy and management at UCLA. He added of Valadao: “He’s going to have a problem.”
The budget blueprint is winding its way through various committees. Meanwhile, the Senate will take up legislation, which the House passed Tuesday, to avoid a shutdown and fund the government through Sept. 30. Valadao voted for the temporary measure, saying in a statement afterward that it “ensures critical government services remain operational [and] protects Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid recipients from unnecessary disruptions.”
Almost certain to face ugly backlash, Valadao has avoided holding town halls in his district. Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Fremont) tauntingly announced he would hold meetings for Valadao instead — as well as in Kim’s and Calvert’s districts.
The Fight for Our Health advocacy coalition organized a town hall in Bakersfield last month ahead of the budget vote and invited Valadao, who said he could not attend. The event, according to local reports, featured many frustrated residents who depend on the healthcare program.
Joyce Hall, 80, carried a sign that read “healthcare for the people and not for the billionaires” outside Valadao’s Bakersfield office on a recent afternoon. The retiree said she relies on Medi-Cal to cover the costs of her co-pays and prescription medication. Without it, she said, she’d likely have to depend on her family to cover the costs.
If Valadao votes to cut into the program, Hall said, she hopes that he loses his seat in Congress during the next election cycle.
A fairly moderate Republican in a Democrat-majority district, Valadao is cautious about speaking out. He avoids the media, and seldom gives interviews. When approached by a reporter for this article, Valadao referred questions to his spokesperson, who said he was not available.
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Voting on pivotal healthcare legislation is familiar territory for Valadao. In 2017, he voted along party lines and joined his Republican colleagues to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act. That next election cycle, he lost to Democratic challenger TJ Cox.
Valadao won his seat back in 2020 and managed to hang on through 2022, even after he voted in Trump’s second impeachment trial to oust the president for inciting an insurrection at the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021. He won reelection in 2024 by more than 11,000 votes.
If Valadao supports a final budget that cuts Medicaid, it could mean a repeat of his 2018 loss, said Matt Herdman, the California director for Protect Our Care, a nonprofit that advocates for increased access to affordable healthcare. He said people in the district have become energized to defend against Medicaid cuts.
“If David Valadao votes to cut Medicaid, it will be the single largest issue to cause his defeat in 2026,” Herdman predicted.
Cathy Abernathy, a GOP strategist, disputed that assessment and said she doesn’t think Valadao should be concerned. Voters in the district trust him to deliver and not cut Medicaid benefits unless it is wasteful and going to the “greedy,” she said.
“Cutting the size of this government so that it’s not so costly on the working people but still provide needed services is still something that they trust Valadao on,” Abernathy said.
Some, such as German Cervantes, believe Valadao will ultimately stand up for his constituents who depend on Medicaid. Cervantes, who has autism and advocates for the autism community, in 2014 interned for Valadao’s office, where he got to meet the congressman and learned his values.
Cervantes, 30, relies on Medi-Cal to cover the costs of a program that has opened up doors for him to travel and participate in programs such as Happy Trails, a horse therapy program, and volunteer trips. It also covers his medical expenses, including annual physical exams, dental checkups and new glasses.
His message to Valadao? Stand by his constituents and Medicaid.
“Hey David, when you are in Washington, D.C., with Congress, the only thing I encourage you is to please tell Congress not to cut Medicare and Medi-Cal,” Cervantes said, “because if you do, not only will people lose their jobs and their healthcare appointments, many people will lose their lives.”
Gomez reported from Los Angeles and Pinho from Washington.
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