Back-to-back L.A. storms force evacuation warnings, raise threat of brief tornados and mudslides
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Back-to-back storms hitting Southern California this week have triggered evacuation warnings for some areas burned in the January firestorms, with the potential for wild weather and falling snow levels.
The evacuation warnings include areas hit by the Palisades fire as well as the Sunset fire, which burned in the hills above Hollywood.
“There’s also potential for strong thunderstorms with damaging wind or weak, brief tornadoes,” said Robbie Munroe, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Oxnard.
Munroe said the storm is expected to be similar to the January storm that caused flooding and mud flows near the Los Angeles County burn scars. This time, the areas that burned in the Palisades, Franklin, Hurst, Bridge, Hughes and Eaton fires could also experience flooding, debris flows and mudslides.
There’s a 30% to 50% chance of significant flooding and debris flows in recent burn scars, Munroe said.
Storm 1
The first of the storms arrived in the Southland on Monday evening and is bringing a smattering of rain and gusty winds to some areas south of Point Conception, according to the National Weather Service.
Rain across Los Angeles County is expected to be fairly light. Thousand Oaks could see 0.12 of an inch of rain, downtown Los Angeles is predicted to get just under half an inch and Long Beach could see 0.73 of an inch, according to the National Weather Service.
San Diego and Orange counties will see a bit more moisture from the first storm with rainfall amounts of a third to two-thirds of an inch expected from the coast to the mountains. Some higher elevations could exceed an inch of rain.
Storm 2
A more powerful atmospheric river is expected to arrive early Wednesday, bringing heavy rain along the coast through Thursday, with significant impacts in the mountains as it moves east. Moisture from that system could linger through Friday.
Forecasters expect the storm to dump 1 to 2 inches of rain along the coast and in valleys and 2 to 4 inches in the mountains and foothills.
Downtown Los Angeles is forecast to receive 1.43 inches of rain. Thousand Oaks is expected to get 1.62 inches, while Long Beach and Redondo Beach could see 1.17 and 1.20 inches, respectively.
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Impacts
The second storm poses the biggest concern, particularly for Los Angeles County burn scars.
“This is definitely the storm to really watch out for,” said Lisa Phillips, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Oxnard.
Officials plan to issue a flood watch beginning at 6 p.m. Wednesday and lasting through Thursday afternoon warning of the possibility of flash flooding and debris flows caused by excessive rainfall. The alert will include much of Los Angeles and Ventura counties, and the south coast of Santa Barbara County.
The heaviest rain is expected to fall between Wednesday night and early Thursday morning, according to the weather service. There is a possibility of heavier showers and thunderstorms hitting the southwest-facing mountains and foothills, areas that are prone to such storm patterns.
Peak rainfall rates of a half inch to an inch per hour is possible between Wednesday night and Thursday, according to the weather service.
Rain rates of an inch per hour “could produce significant flooding, even outside of burn scars into urban areas,” Munroe said. Experts say the risk of mud and debris sliding off burned hillsides rises once rain starts falling at a rate of half an inch per hour.
The risk of debris flows and flooding will remain through Thursday, even after the bulk of the rain has passed, Munroe said.
“Everything will be so saturated from the heavy rains that the soils won’t be able to take much more rain, so any kind of heavier showers or thunderstorms with lingering instability through Thursday afternoon could cause problems in a hurry,” Munroe said.
L.A. County officials said they are prepared for the incoming wet weather.
The California Office of Emergency Services pre-deployed fire engines, swift water rescue teams, urban search and rescue, dozers and helicopters across the state in preparation for the storms. More than 400 personnel were dispatched to El Dorado, Glenn, Los Angeles, Nevada, Orange, San Bernardino and Ventura counties, according to Gov. Gavin Newsom’s office.
“As California faces more severe weather, we’re deploying fire and rescue resources throughout the state to protect communities,” Newsom said in a statement. “If you’re in the path of these storms, please prepare now and listen to local authorities.”
Evacuation warnings
Ahead of the second storm, evacuation warnings have been issued for Los Angeles communities near burn scars.
In the Palisades burn scar, the Getty Villa area, the Highlands, the Bienveneda area near Temescal Canyon Park, Rivas Canyon/Will Rogers State Park, Mandeville Canyon above Tanners Road, Old Ranch Road and Rustic Creek are under evacuation warnings starting Wednesday morning.
East and south of Runyon Canyon in the Sunset fire zone are also under an evacuation warning. In the Hurst fire area, an evacuation warning has been issued for Olive Lane in the Oakridge Mobile Home Park, according to the Los Angeles Fire Department.
Several neighborhoods in Malibu will also be under evacuation warnings beginning at 7 a.m. Wednesday, according to the city.
The areas include Carbon Canyon, Carbon Beach East, La Costa Beach/La Costa (hillside), Las Flores Creek, Las Flores Mesa, eastern Malibu, Big Rock, Las Tunas Beach, Topanga Beach Road, Carbon Beach Terrace, Carbon Beach, Rambla Pacifico, Carbon Beach West/Malibu Beach, Sweetwater Canyon, Sweetwater Mesa, Serra Retreat, Malibu Creek, Cross Creek, Malibu Colony, Civic Center, Malibu Knolls, Malibu Road, Malibu Country Estates, Puerco Canyon and Piuma Road.
“Residents should prepare to evacuate now due to the significant risk of flash flooding, debris flows and mudslides. These hazards pose a serious threat to life and property,” the city wrote in post on X.
Evacuation warnings are expected to last through Thursday evening, officials said.
Snow levels
The storms are expected to drop a fresh dusting of powder across California’s mountain ranges.
In Los Angeles and Ventura counties, snow levels will fall to 3,000 feet by Wednesday night, bringing at least light snow to those areas.
One to 2 feet of snow is expected at elevations above 6,500 feet, while 6 to 12 inches could fall at lower elevations. Between an inch and 5 inches is forecast for elevations between 4,000 and 5,500 feet. Officials plan to issue a winter storm warning between 4 p.m. Wednesday and 5 a.m. Saturday.
There’s a risk of blowing snow and ice on Interstate 5 in the Tejon Pass that could cause travel delays. Highway 14 in the Antelope Valley and Highways 33 and 154 could also see issues.
The San Bernardino County mountains could see wet snow with accumulations of 3 to 6 inches above 6,500 feet and 6 to 8 inches above 8,500 feet.
In the San Diego County mountains, snow may fall at 6,500 feet with up to 3 inches possible and winds gusting as high as 60 mph.
In Northern California, heavy snow and strong winds, gusting from 40 to 60 mph, are expected across the Sierra Nevada.
Officials expect to issue a winter storm warning for the greater Lake Tahoe area beginning late Tuesday warning of accumulations up to 2 to 3 feet along the Sierra crest. The Sierra communities could see accumulations up to 18 inches. Winds along the ridge could gust as high as 70 mph, according to the weather service.
The alert cautions that strong winds could cause damage to trees and power lines and blowing snow “could cause near whiteout conditions.”
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