The 2025 Oscars BuzzMeter: Predicting the winners

The Oscar nominations are upon us; thus, so is Round 3 of the BuzzMeter! After first supporting their personal picks and then predicting who and what will be nominated, our powerful panel of veteran film journalists is now sharing who and what will grab the gold on March 2. We’ve seen wild fluctuations in their fancies in this rollercoaster of an awards season, but now they have made their winner picks. Final answers!

Think you can do better? Have a look at all their predictions in 10 Oscar categories below and vote in the online polls!

Our Oscars 2025 BuzzMeter panelists: Dave Karger, Amy Nicholson, Anne Thompson and Glenn Whipp.

(Kagan McLeod / For The Times)

Mark Eydelshteyn and Mikey Madison star in “Anora.”

(Neon)

1. “Anora”
2. “Conclave”
3. “The Brutalist”
4. “A Complete Unknown”
5. “Wicked”
6. “Emilia Pérez”
7. “The Substance”
8. “Dune: Part Two”
9. “I’m Still Here”
10. “Nickel Boys”

In this most volatile of awards seasons, the winds have shifted once more, this time in a gale (which is not good news for Dorothy).

“Anora,” which led the first two rounds of the BuzzMeter but fell just behind “The Brutalist” in Round 3 voting, bounces back to the top in our updated tally. What changed? Since that earlier prediction after most major critics’ groups picks, the guilds have spoken — and the panel has heard them. Sean Baker’s film took the top prize at Los Angeles Film Critics Assn. and Critics Choice Assn., then went on to take the feature director award at the Directors Guild Awards, the original screenplay award from the Writers Guild, and — from the most predictive body for the best picture Oscar — the Producers Guild’s Darryl F. Zanuck Award. Since 1990, the PGAs and the Oscars have matched 69% of the time. And in good news for Baker, the DGA winner has repeated at the Oscars all but twice in the last 20 years.)

However, the panelists still regard this as a very close race — only five points in their weighted voting separate first (“Anora”), second (“Conclave”) and third (“The Brutalist”).

Panelist Glenn Whipp says, “ ‘Anora’ has won the top prizes from the producers, directors and writers guilds. ‘Brokeback Mountain’ is the only movie that has pulled off that hat trick but failed to win the best picture Oscar. Is there a ‘Crash’ lurking at this year’s show?”

Dave Karger also says to proceed with caution: “ ‘Anora’ was my personal favorite film of last year but I wasn’t bullish on its chances to win. Its phenomenal performance late in the season gives it frontrunner status but it’s not a lock. There are four films that could win.”

Amy Nicholson opted to stick to her guns: “What’s that smoke? Could it be ‘Conclave’ sneaking away with a narrow win? … Everyone likes ‘Conclave,’ winning here won’t take a Hail Mary.”

Anne Thompson sees it as a two-way race between “Anora” and “Conclave” (winner of the top two BAFTAs, though BAFTA has matched the Academy Awards only 41% of the time since 1990). Other recent events have affected at least one former top contender, though: “Losing frontrunner status are scandal-plagued nominations leader ‘Emilia Pérez’ (13),” says Thompson, also listing the Dorothy Gale prequel, “blockbuster musical ‘Wicked’ ($680 million worldwide) and Brady Corbet’s lauded art film ‘The Brutalist.’ ”

Brady Corbet, shown here at the 82nd Golden Globe Awards, is picked to add an Oscar to his trophy case. - (Jason Armond / Los Angeles Times)

(Carlin Stiehl / For The Times)

1. Brady Corbet — “The Brutalist”
2. Jacques Audiard — “Emilia Pérez”
3. Sean Baker — “Anora”
4. James Mangold — “A Complete Unknown”
5. Coralie Fargeat — “The Substance”

Care to guess what, as of the nomination announcement, was the highest-grossing film among those with their directors tabbed? Believe it or don’t, it’s Coralie Fargeat’s “The Substance,” the ferociously, even ferally feminist body-horror satire that landed five Oscar nods and $76.5 million worldwide. Meanwhile, the BuzzMeter panel predicts gold for the director of the lowest grosser, with only $5.9 million worldwide against a $10 million budget for a three-and-a-half hour, intimate epic as of nom day. In fact, “The Brutalist’s” Brady Corbet is a consensus pick. But considering the extraordinarily bold choices made by all the nominated filmmakers, Dave Karger says, “One word seems to connect the nominees in this category: audacity.”

By the way, trivia nerds, if Corbet did win and “Brutalist’s” box-office tally magically stopped at $6 million, it would still be about six times the gross of another recent best-director winning film … what is that movie? (Answer below)

As with the best picture candidates, the earlier rounds’ three top picks remain, with positions switched — with the notable exception of “Conclave” (and “All Quiet on the Western Front”) helmer Edward Berger missing the academy’s cut. Coralie Fargeat had been on the panel’s radar for quite some time, though the Buzzards gave her only an outside chance to break through with the Oscar voters. And the panel had seemed to turn a deaf ear to “A Complete Unknown,” apart from its lead actor; if the film’s many nominees were picked to win in Round 3, James Mangold and Co. might sneer, “You got a lotta nerve to say you are my friend.”

Amy Nicholson says, “There are only three real contenders here — sorry, Coralie and James. But of the directors left standing, this feels like the toss-up of the night. Sean Baker deserves it” but “Anora” may not be cinematically dazzling enough to win, she worries.

And that concern may be well founded, as both Dave Karger and Anne Thompson point to the boldness of other contenders’ work: “Which filmmaker was perhaps the most audacious this year? Brady Corbet, who turned his massive, yet intimate, epic into a bona fide cinematic experience,” says Karger. Thompson cites Corbet’s decade-long struggle to make “The Brutalist” and says “Audiard is not far behind for degree of difficulty.”

Trivia answer: Jane Campion’s “The Power of the Dog,” for streamer Netflix, had only a limited theatrical run with an unofficial box-office total estimated at $732,269 by The Numbers.

Demi Moore will get no less than an Oscar for her substantive performance in Coralie Fargeat’s horror-satire “The Substance.”

(Christine Tamalet/Universal Studios)

1. Demi Moore — “The Substance”
2. Mikey Madison — “Anora”
3. Cynthia Erivo — “Wicked”
4. Karla Sofía Gascón — “Emilia Pérez”
5. Fernanda Torres — “I’m Still Here”

What a difference a few months make. Even as late as Round 2, Demi Moore was considered a contender, but not a lock, for a nomination. Now, in Round 3, she’s the panel’s consensus pick to win the Oscar.

“Before that rousing Golden Globes speech, I wasn’t even sure Demi Moore would be nominated. Now, I’m not sure how she’ll lose,” says Amy Nicholson (it should be noted that critics’ groups such as the international journalists that vote on the Globes, do not have significant overlap with academy membership and are therefore not more reliable predictors of Oscar wins than the quarter in your pocket). Nevertheless, Anne Thompson agrees that “Demi Moore took the lead after delivering a career-topping speech at the Globes.” And Dave Karger says, “Demi Moore’s body- and soul-baring performance — not to mention her endearing award-show appearances this season — could very well lead to a win.”

While also praising the quality of Moore’s work in “The Substance,” Glenn Whipp says, “Demi Moore being the presumptive frontrunner proves the power of narrative when it comes to the Oscars. Everyone loves a comeback story.” After all, it was just a couple of years ago that one actor said on the Oscar stage, “I started in this business 30 years ago and things didn’t come easily to me,” while another who hadn’t been in a major Hollywood film in 30 years, said, “My journey started on a boat. I spent a year in a refugee camp. And somehow, I ended up here.” (Both won Oscars that year; who are they? Answer below.)

But if narrative is a deciding factor, consider that Fernanda Torres is only the second Brazilian performer to be nominated — and the first was her mother, Fernanda Montenegro, working with the same director, Walter Salles for “Central Station.” For her breakout role in “Anora,” Mikey Madison has collected wins from critics’ groups including LAFCA, National Board of Review, the Alliance of Women Film Journalists, and many others — and she’s only 25. Cynthia Erivo is one of the best singers in the world, has won the E, G and T of EGOT and is on her third nomination for the cultural phenomenon that is “Wicked.” And then there’s Karla Sofía Gascón, one of the leading lights of the awards-season juggernaut that is “Emilia Pérez” — and who happens to be the first trans woman ever nominated in the category.

So … intriguing narratives abound in this race, though the panel has made its consensus pick.

Among the big names not making the nominations cut: Nicole Kidman, Angelina Jolie, Florence Pugh, Saoirse Ronan, Zendaya, Emma Stone, Tilda Swinton and Kate Winslet.

Trivia answer: Those two 2023 Oscar winners are Brendan Fraser (“The Whale”) and Ke Huy Quan (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”).

The panel sees sparks flying in Adrien Brody’s bid to be a two-time Oscar winner for his work in “The Brutalist.”

(A24)

1. Adrien Brody — “The Brutalist”
2. Timothée Chalamet — “A Complete Unknown”
3. Ralph Fiennes — “Conclave”
4. Colman Domingo — “Sing Sing”
5. Sebastian Stan — “The Apprentice”

As Nikki Glaser waggishly called him at the Golden Globes, “two-time Holocaust survivor Adrien Brody” is now considered the frontrunner in the lead-actor category — at least by the BuzzMeter panel, which has made him a consensus pick. This category has been notably volatile all season, with the leaders changing each round (first Ralph Fiennes, then Timothée Chalamet; now Brody). As Glaser pointed out, this is his second role as a talented Jewish person surviving the Nazis; this time, he’s a Hungarian architect who falls into the brutal-est of hands: The rich and powerful of America.

“In a less competitive year, Timothée Chalamet would be a sure thing for his captivating turn as Bob Dylan,” says Dave Karger, “or Ralph Fiennes for his career-capping performance in ‘Conclave.’ ” Though Amy Nicholson says, “Timothée Chalamet should be up here for ‘Dune: Part Two,’ where his performance as a naif-turned-zealot took the audience on a dangerous thrill ride.”

Anne Thompson says Chalamet seems to be gaining steam, but doesn’t expect this to be his year: “At 29, the same age as Brody was when he won, Chalamet might have to wait for another chance.” However, Glenn Whipp points out that, should the Man Who Would Be Dylan prevail, he would actually be slightly younger than Brody was at the time of his win: “Is it time to crown a new prince?” (That’s “prince,” not “Prince”; not a call for the impressively versatile Chalamet to play another, very different Minnesota music god.)

Notables not noted here: Hugh Grant at his diabolical best in the low-key indie horror “Heretic,” Ethan Herisse in “Nickel Boys,” Nicholas Hoult for “Juror No. 2,” Jharrel Jerome for “Unstoppable,” Keith Kupferer in the lovely indie “Ghostlight,” reigning champ Cillian Murphy for the downbeat “Small Things Like These” and Sebastian Stan for “A Different Man” — we imagine he’ll settle for his “Apprentice” nom, which is yuge. YUGE. Yuger and more spectacular than anything anyone has ever seen.

Although she could justifiably be called the lead of “Emilia Perez,” Zoe Saldana sits as the first pick for the supporting actress Oscar.

(Why Not Productions)

1. Zoe Saldaña — “Emilia Pérez”
2. Ariana Grande — “Wicked”
3. Monica Barbaro — “A Complete Unknown”
4. Felicity Jones — “The Brutalist”
5. Isabella Rossellini — “Conclave”

Zoe Saldaña has led this race from the starting gun, since Cannes went nuts for “Emilia Pérez.” Even as the film has hit some awards-season snags, her candidacy has stayed strong, and she’s a consensus pick in Round 3 to add an Oscar to her list of accomplishments (she’s also currently the second-highest-grossing actress of all time, and figures to cruise into No. 1 when “Avatar: Fire and Ash” drops in December) (Trivia! Who’s currently No. 1 on that list? Answer below.).

Dave Karger cites the omission of “Pérez” costar Selena Gomez — and the potential for vote-splitting — as a deciding factor in his prediction: “Saldaña will earn all the ‘Emilia Pérez’ support … and therefore the victory.” Taking nothing from Saldaña’s “superb turn,” Glenn Whipp sees a potential “Lord of the Rings: Return of the King”-type outcome for Ariana Grande: “Maybe Ariana Grande can prevail next year for the second part of ‘Wicked’?”

(Trivia hint: No. 1 on the all-time grossing actresses list is a two-time Oscar nominee.)

Monica Barbaro gets shout-outs from the panel for learning to sing and play guitar like Joan Baez and several panelists have previously pulled for Isabella Rossellini to get a nod, but the singin’ and dancin’ lawyer who could arguably be considered the lead in “Emilia” is the call here.

Trivia answer: The No. 1 highest-grossing actress of all time is Saldaña’s MCU costar, Scarlett Johansson, though no one else but Saldaña can say they starred in the Top 3 all-time highest-grossing films (and four of the Top 6).

Among the many worthy performances not making the cut: Lashana Lynch (“Bob Marley: One Love”), Elle Fanning (“A Complete Unknown”), Joan Chen (“Didi”), the three daughters from “His Three Daughters” (Carrie Coon, Natasha Lyonne, Elizabeth Olsen), Leonie Benesch (“September 5”), Katherine Kupferer and Dolly De Leon (“Ghostlight”), Jennifer Lopez (“Unstoppable”), Margaret Qualley (“The Substance” or “Kinds of Kindness”) and Gomez of “Emilia Pérez,” who shares the Cannes actress prize with costars Saldaña, Karla Sofía Gascón and Adriana Paz.

Kieran Culkin, left, and Jesse Eisenberg co-star in “A Real Pain.” Culkin is the panel’s pick to lead the supporting actor category in Round 1.

(Sundance Institute)

1. Kieran Culkin — “A Real Pain”
2. Edward Norton — “A Complete Unknown”
3. Guy Pearce — “The Brutalist”
4. Yura Borisov — “Anora”
5. Jeremy Strong — “The Apprentice”

Kieran Culkin is, you guessed it, another consensus pick, this one to succeed Robert Downey Jr. for the supporting-actor Oscar.

Anne Thompson says, “This should be won handily by Kieran Culkin, who is funny and scary and moving.” Glenn Whipp adds, “Culkin has been sweeping through awards season, collecting trophies for his turn as an extroverted charmer masking a deep well of sadness in ‘A Real Pain.’ ” Dave Karger agrees: “It’s hard to imagine who might be able to mount a challenge against the scene-stealing Kieran Culkin.”

Culkin’s TV brother/rival Jeremy Strong also jumps in, making the cut with the Oscars and SAGs for his disturbing-yet-human turn as the infamous Roy Cohn in the Boy-Who-Would-Be-Trump saga, “The Apprentice.” Hard to believe Guy Pearce’s nomination is his first (no, he wasn’t nominated for “Memento” or “The Adventures of Priscilla, Queen of the Desert”), but it is. That’s rich. Edward Norton gets some love from the panel for his lovely work as an apparently lovely man, folk hero Pete Seeger, in “A Complete Unknown.”

Yura Borisov earns high praise from Amy Nicholson for his multi-dimensional role in “Anora”: “He will get flooded with offers to play the heavy in prestige action films. It’s a career path that worked for Christoph Waltz. Still, here’s hoping someone tailors an even better role to his warm and human strengths.”

Among the notables not in the Final Five are the boys from “Challengers” (Mike Faist, Josh O’Connor), previous winners Denzel Washington (“Gladiator II”), Sean Penn (“Daddio”) and Clarence Maclin (“Sing Sing”), Stanley Tucci and John Lithgow of “Conclave,” Brian Tyree Henry of “The Fire Inside” and “Nickel Boys” standout Brandon Wilson.

“Anora” charms its way back to the top in the original-screenplay race. Pictured: Mikey Madison as Ani.

(NEON)

1. “Anora”
2. “The Brutalist”
3. “A Real Pain”
4. “The Substance”
5. “September 5”

Sean Baker’s “Anora” makes it back to No. 1 in Round 3, but by only three points over “The Brutalist” and four over “A Real Pain.”

“It’s thematically fitting that Jesse Eisenberg’s ‘A Real Pain’ wasn’t able to befriend enough voters to land the best picture slot it deserves,” says Amy Nicholson, though she agrees when Dave Karger says, “This category marks ‘Anora’s’ best shot at a win on Oscar night” … though he “gives ‘The Brutalist’ a slight edge.” Anne Thompson sees “Anora” as No. 1 with “Brutalist” close behind, adding, “Jesse Eisenberg has a good shot for ‘A Real Pain,’ which will likely make do with a supporting actor win.”

Glenn Whipp agrees this might be the best chance for “Anora” to strike gold: “I hope it wins other Oscars too, but this one seems like an easy call.”

Contenders the panel had thought or hoped had a chance for nominations include “All We Imagine as Light,” “The Apprentice,” “His Three Daughters” and “Thelma”; other notables not making the cut include “Ghostlight,” “Heretic” and “Kinds of Kindness.”

Ralph Fiennes stars in “Conclave,” which leads the adapted screenplay picks.

(Uncredited / Associated Press)

1. “Conclave”
2. “A Complete Unknown”
3. “Emilia Pérez”
4. “Nickel Boys”
5. “Sing Sing”

The “Emilia Pérez” slide continues with “Conclave” earning the white smoke as a consensus pick at No. 1, with “A Complete Unknown” jumping in to knock the Cannes-hit, cockeyed French musical in the Spanish language all the way down to No. 3.

The panelists are united in positing that this may be the only category for voters to express admiration for Edward Berger’s papal drama (though it’s considered a strong contender in several non-BuzzMeter categories, such as score and costume design).

Dave Karger sums it up: “This will likely be a race between two films that performed very well overall: ‘Conclave’ and ‘Emilia Pérez.’ With ‘Emilia’ set to take home prizes in other categories, voters wanting to recognize ‘Conclave’ somewhere may well look here.”

“ ‘Conclave’ is worthy enough here, although I still feel like that ending is missing a few pages,” says Amy Nicholson. “I’d rather see it pick up a production design win instead. Those branded papal toiletries!”

Among the other adapted scripts the panel showed love in the past: “Wicked” (Anne Thompson wrote it “could sneak into this category, for the length of time it took to adapt a book into not only into a smash Broadway musical, but a blockbuster movie.”) and “Dune: Part Two,” which embraced the ugliness of its protagonist’s evolution (Amy Nicholson wrote, “Herbert was forced to write a sequel to insist that [protagonist] Paul Atreides is no hero. Villeneuve centers the female characters who say it all in their disappointment.”).

Other top contenders missing out on a nom include “I’m Still Here,” “Inside Out 2,” “Queer,” and the highest-grossing R-rated film of all time, “Deadpool and Wolverine.”

Zoe Saldaña, left, and Karla Sofía Gascón in “Emilia Pérez,” the Round 1 leader in the international feature category.

(Netflix)

1. “Emilia Pérez” (France)
2. “I’m Still Here” (Brazil)
3. “Flow” (Latvia)
4. “The Seed of the Sacred Fig” (Germany)
5. “The Girl with the Needle” (Denmark)

As it has been all season long, “Emilia Pérez” (of France) remains the BuzzMeter panel’s consensus pick atop the international field. But with two other nominees also receiving major Oscar recognition, this no longer looks like a runaway.

“I’m Still Here” (Brazil) is also up for best picture and lead actress (Fernanda Torres, following her mother, Fernanda Montegro’s feat, becoming the only Brazilians to receive acting nominations). “Flow” (Latvia) is also up for the animated-feature prize. “The Seed of the Sacred Fig” (Germany) has a compelling real-life political backdrop.

Still, “Emilia” led all comers with 13 nominations (including best picture, director, lead actress, supporting actress and adapted screenplay), so the unique musical is still expected to prevail: “Its historic overall performance means it’ll likely become the first musical winner in this category since 1959,” says Dave Karger. Glenn Whipp points out the international and best picture nods for “Emilia” and “Still Here” represent “the first time two movies have shared that distinction in the same year. It’s hard to pick against ‘Emilia Pérez,’ though, as it pulled in a leading 13 nods.”

Amy Nicholson thinks those 13 could be unlucky: “A win here could mean voters feel they’ve given it enough flowers — and it will end the night singing a tragic aria” — and not collecting wins in other categories … though Anne Thompson expects it to land trophies for “both supporting actress (Zoe Saldaña) and international feature film.”

Perhaps the most surprising movement in the category has been the fall of “The Seed of the Sacred Fig” from a consistent second to fourth. “I’m Still Here’s” flood of nomination love makes it a natural second, but the panel going with the “Flow” from nowhere into the third spot is unexpected.

“Flow” has moved ahead of “The Wild Robot” and “Inside Out 2” in the animated feature predictions.

(Festival de Cannes)

1. “Flow”
2. “The Wild Robot”
3. “Inside Out 2”
4. “Memoir of a Snail”
5. “Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl”

In a mighty year for animation, the highest-grossing animated film of all time is considered only the third-most likely nominee to win the Oscar.

“What started out as a duel between two hugely entertaining movies, Pixar’s sequel blockbuster ‘Inside Out 2’ and Universal’s original ‘The Wild Robot,’” says Anne Thompson, “turned into a three-way race after low-budget, Latvian ‘Flow’ won the Globe.”

“Flow,” the wordless journey of a heroic cat and friends through a flooded world, took awards bodies by storm once it started screening. The gorgeously rendered film, made in Latvia using open-source software, has won at LAFCA, NYFCC, the Golden Globes and elsewhere, is also nominated for the international feature Oscar, and is a near-consensus pick in Round 3 of the BuzzMeter. Only the also-visual knockout “The Wild Robot,” in close second place, gets another first-place vote. The two highly regarded films boast 97% ratings on Rotten Tomatoes (with audience ratings of 99% and 98%, respectively).

Amy Nicholson calls “Flow” “Wordless and wonderful, tragic and hopeful, it’s the year’s most optimistic take on how a battered society can come together to rebuild.” Dave Karger says “Wild Robot” is the “domestic favorite,” but “ ‘Flow’ … seems to have the momentum.” “ “Flow” feels like the film ‘The Wild Robot’ wants to be … It’s spellbinding,” says Glenn Whipp. “Perhaps it has the stuff to pull off an upset.”

The box-office record-shattering “Inside Out 2” is no slouch in that regard, and neither is “Memoir of a Snail”; both boast plus-90% Tomatometer scores. But the No. 5 contender, the latest “Wallace & Gromit” adventure, has a clean 100%.

The category is so competitive that some titles that would have been contenders for the crown in weaker years don’t even make the cut: The wildly popular sequel “Moana 2”; the next step forward in photorealistic digital rendering, Barry Jenkins’ “Mufasa: The Lion King”; the best film in the “Transformers” series, the animated origin story “Transformers One”; and three remarkable international titles: “Chicken for Linda!”, “Mars Express” and the unique, quirky “Ghost Cat Anzu.”